Premier League / Greek Super League / Cyprus League

An xG model that prices goals, not opinions.

Every upcoming fixture is run through a Poisson goals model built on season expected goals for and against. You get the projected scoreline, the Over/Under 2.5 split, BTTS probability and a plain-English read of what the numbers mean.

Settled tips
15
Strike rate
80%
ROI / pick
43.9%
Last 30 days
9/12

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Match notes

Written reads on selected fixtures. Free notes are open to everyone; VIP notes need a membership.

FreeBodø/Glimt vs NEC Nijmegen8/25/2026

Bodø/Glimt vs NEC Nijmegen Champions League playoff second leg

Bodø/Glimt vs NEC Nijmegen Champions League playoff second leg. ⚽ Quick match review Bodø/Glimt have a big advantage: they won the first leg 3–1 in Nijmegen, so NEC need at least two goals just to force the tie level. Bodø are also in excellent form, with six straight domestic wins and a very strong European record. They have scored at least twice in 10 of their last 11 European matches. Expected lineups Bodø/Glimt — 4-3-3 🧤 Haikin Sjøvold – Bjørtuft – Aleesami – Bjørkan Auklend – Patrick Berg – Fet Blomberg – Helmersen – Hauge NEC — 3-4-2-1 🧤 Crettaz Pereira – Storm – Fonville Monteiro – Nejasmic – Lebreton – Bischoff Chery – Tadic Linssen These are still projected lineups, not confirmed starting XIs; the actual teams are normally announced around an hour before kickoff. 🔥 My prediction I expect NEC to attack because they have nothing to lose, which could actually suit Bodø's counter-attacking game. My score prediction: Bodø/Glimt 2–1 NEC That would make it 5–2 on aggregate. Best angles, in order: 🟢 Bodø/Glimt to win 🟢 Over 2.5 goals 🟢 Bodø/Glimt + Over 1.5 team goals 🟡 BTTS — Yes 🔥 Higher-risk: Bodø/Glimt -1 Asian handicap There is some disagreement on the exact score: Sports Mole has 2–1, SportsKeeda also has 2–1, while Forebet's model goes as far as 3–1. My strongest pick: Bodø/Glimt win + Over 1.5 total goals.

Results ledger

Every published pick, settled and unedited.

DateLeagueFixtureMarketOddsScoreResult
8/23/2026Greek Super LeaguePAOK – AEK AthensOver 2.51.903–1win
8/22/2026Premier LeagueLiverpool – TottenhamBTTS Yes1.852–2win
8/22/2026Cyprus LeagueAEL Limassol – AnorthosisUnder 2.51.752–2miss
8/20/2026Premier LeagueArsenal – EvertonUnder 2.51.801–0win
8/19/2026Greek Super LeagueOlympiacos – LamiaOver 2.51.724–0win
8/18/2026Cyprus LeagueAPOEL – Pafos FCOver 2.51.951–1miss
8/16/2026Premier LeagueChelsea – BrightonOver 2.51.683–2win
8/14/2026Greek Super LeagueAEK Athens – ArisUnder 2.51.881–0win
8/12/2026Cyprus LeagueOmonia Nicosia – AEK LarnacaBTTS Yes1.802–1win
8/10/2026Premier LeagueManchester City – West HamOver 2.51.454–1win
8/8/2026Greek Super LeaguePanathinaikos – VolosUnder 2.51.922–0win
8/6/2026Premier LeagueNewcastle – Aston VillaOver 2.51.751–1miss
8/4/2026Cyprus LeagueAnorthosis – Nea SalaminaOver 2.51.853–1win
8/1/2026Greek Super LeaguePAOK – AtromitosUnder 2.51.951–0win
7/29/2026Premier LeagueTottenham – Crystal PalaceBTTS Yes1.782–1win

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